Download Adaptive Business Intelligence by Zbigniew Michalewicz PDF

By Zbigniew Michalewicz

Within the glossy info period, managers needs to realize the aggressive possibilities represented by means of decision-support instruments. Adaptive company intelligence platforms mix prediction and optimization concepts to aid determination makers in complicated, speedily altering environments. those structures deal with the elemental questions: what's prone to occur sooner or later? and what's the simplest choice at once? Adaptive company Intelligence contains parts of knowledge mining, predictive modeling, forecasting, optimization, and adaptability.The authors have massive educational examine backgrounds in man made intelligence and comparable fields, mixed with years of functional consulting adventure in companies and industries around the globe. during this publication they clarify the technological know-how and alertness of various prediction and optimization suggestions, in addition to how those techniques can be utilized to advance adaptive structures. The ideas coated contain linear regression, time-series forecasting, choice timber and tables, man made neural networks, genetic programming, fuzzy structures, genetic algorithms, simulated annealing, tabu seek, ant structures, and agent-based modeling.This publication is appropriate for company and IT managers who make judgements in complicated business and repair environments, nonspecialists who are looking to comprehend the technological know-how in the back of higher predictions and judgements, and scholars and researchers who want a fast creation to this box.

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In the car distribution example, there are several important elements of prediction. For example, we would like to predict the sale prices for different cars at different auction sites on different days. Because these predictions are based on past cases, we should know all the variables (e. , “make,” “model,” “body style,” “mileage”) of the cars that were sold over the last, say, three years; and we should also know the sale price, and the exact date and location. Having all this information, we can then apply various prediction methods to develop a good prediction model.

The data mining stage), the selection of the best prediction method on the basis of (a) explaining the variability in question, and (b) producing consistent results, and the development of one or more prediction models. x Deployment and evaluation. This step includes implementing the best prediction model, and applying it to new data to generate predictions. However, because new data arrive on a continuous basis, it is essential to measure the prediction model’s performance and tune it accordingly.

Most prediction methods and models require that variables be either binary or numerical (or nominal with numerical codes as values), thus allowing some order. So, what should we do with truly nominal variables, such as color? Well, there are two possibilities: Either the color of a car can be coded as a unique number, or it can be converted into several binary (true/false) variables, with each variable representing a particular color. For example, if the color of the car is white, then the variable can take on the value “true” (or “1”); if the color of the car is not white, then the value would be “false” (or “0”).

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